Dynamic evolution and multi-scenario simulation of ecosystem and socio-economic system coupling coordination in Chengdu Metropolitan Area and its policy implications
発表者／presenter’s name：〇LIU Yi 1，WANG Qian-na 1，LIAO Yi-qing 1
所属／Affiliation：1 College of Architecture and Environment, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China

要旨／Abstract
Chengdu Metropolitan Area in China serves as an important ecological screen area and economic center in the upstream Yangtze River, and it is of great significance to conduct research on the coupling coordination of ecosystem and socio-economic system for reginal sustainable development. Firstly, based on InVEST model, this study analyzes the changes in ecosystem service functions in 2010, 2015, and 2020. Furthermore, the coupling coordination degree model is applied to analyze the dynamic evolution process of its coupling coordination with the socio-economic system. Finally, based on InVEST-PLUS model, this study simulates and analyzes the coupling coordination change trends of ecosystem and socio-economic system under three scenarios: natural development, industry-led, and low-carbon in 2035. The results show following conclusions: (1) The average values of comprehensive index for ES in 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 0.43, 0.41, and 0.44 respectively, which were generally in the average level. There is no significant difference in spatial distribution, and the overall presents the characteristics of “the west is better than the east, and the central is the lowest”; (2) From 2010 to 2020, the coupling coordination degree between the two systems increased from 0.29 to 0.36, achieving a transition from a status of moderate disorder to mild disorder. However, there exists spatial imbalance in the spatial distribution, with the overall pattern shifting from “the east is better than the west” to “the west is better than the east.”; (3) From 2020 to 2035, the level of coupling coordination between the two systems continues to improve. Among the three scenarios, the coupling coordination degree is ranked as follows: low-carbon scenario > natural development scenario > industry-led scenario, indicating that intensifying restoration and governance measures is beneficial for improving the coordination status in most areas of the study area. Finally, based on the research results, three policy implications are proposed: building “three mountains”, conserving “three rivers”, and coordinating “three districts”. The research results are benefit for providing a scientific basis and support for the sustainable and coordinated development of Chengdu Metropolitan Area, and also offer reference and samples for other metropolitan areas.

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